Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
Open Science Collaboration; Aarts, Alexander A.; Anderson, Joanna E.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Attridge, Peter R.; Attwood, Angela; Axt, Jordan; Babel, Molly; Bahník, Štěpán; Baranski, Erica; +260 more...Barnett-Cowan, Michael; Bartmess, Elizabeth; Beer, Jennifer; Bell, Raoul; Bentley, Heather; Beyan, Leah; Binion, Grace; Borsboom, Denny; Bosch, Annick; Bosco, Frank A.; Bowman, Sara D.; Brandt, Mark J.; Braswell, Erin; Brohmer, Hilmar; Brown, Benjamin T.; Brown, Kristina; Brüning, Jovita; Calhoun-Sauls, Ann; Callahan, Shannon P.; Chagnon, Elizabeth; Chandler, Jesse; Chartier, Christopher R.; Cheung, Felix; Christopherson, Cody D.; Cillessen, Linda; Clay, Russ; Cleary, Hayley; Cloud, Mark D.; Cohn, Michael; Cohoon, Johanna; Columbus, Simon; Cordes, Andreas; Costantini, Giulio; Cramblet Alvarez, Leslie D.; Cremata, Ed; Crusius, Jan; DeCoster, Jamie; DeGaetano, Michelle A.; Della Penna, Nicolás; den Bezemer, Bobby; Deserno, Marie K.; Devitt, Olivia; Dewitte, Laura; Dobolyi, David G.; Dodson, Geneva T.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Donohue, Ryan; Dore, Rebecca A.; Dorrough, Angela; Dreber, Anna; Dugas, Michelle; Dunn, Elizabeth W.; Easey, Kayleigh; Eboigbe, Sylvia; Eggleston, Casey; Embley, Jo; Epskamp, Sacha; Errington, Timothy M.; Estel, Vivien; Farach, Frank J.; Feather, Jenelle; Fedor, Anna; Fernández-Castilla, Belén; Fiedler, Susann; Field, James G.; Fitneva, Stanka A.; Flagan, Taru; Forest, Amanda L.; Forsell, Eskil; Foster, Joshua D.; Frank, Michael C.; Frazier, Rebecca S.; Fuchs, Heather; Gable, Philip; Galak, Jeff; Galliani, Elisa Maria; Gampa, Anup; Garcia, Sara; Gazarian, Douglas; Gilbert, Elizabeth; Giner-Sorolla, Roger; Glöckner, Andreas; Goellner, Lars; Goh, Jin X.; Goldberg, Rebecca; Goodbourn, Patrick T.; Gordon-McKeon, Shauna; Gorges, Bryan; Gorges, Jessie; Goss, Justin; Graham, Jesse; Grange, James A.; Gray, Jeremy; Hartgerink, Chris; Hartshorne, Joshua; Hasselman, Fred; Hayes, Timothy; Heikensten, Emma; Henninger, Felix; Hodsoll, John; Holubar, Taylor; Hoogendoorn, Gea; Humphries, Denise J.; Hung, Cathy O.Y.; Immelman, Nathali; Irsik, Vanessa C.; Jahn, Georg; Jäkel, Frank; Jekel, Marc; Johannesson, Magnus; Johnson, Larissa G.; Johnson, David J.; Johnson, Kate M.; Johnston, William J.; Jonas, Kai; Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A.; Kappes, Heather Barry
; Kelso, Kim; Kidwell, Mallory C.; Kim, Seung Kyung; Kirkhart, Matthew; Kleinberg, Bennett; Knežević, Goran; Kolorz, Franziska Maria; Kossakowski, Jolanda J.; Krause, Robert Wilhelm; Krijnen, Job; Kuhlmann, Tim; Kunkels, Yoram K.; Kyc, Megan M.; Lai, Calvin K.; Laique, Aamir; Lakens, Daniël; Lane, Kristin A.; Lassetter, Bethany; Lazarević, Ljiljana B.; LeBel, Etienne P.; Lee, Key Jung; Lee, Minha; Lemm, Kristi; Levitan, Carmel A.; Lewis, Melissa; Lin, Lin; Lin, Stephanie; Lippold, Matthias; Loureiro, Darren; Luteijn, Ilse; Mackinnon, Sean; Mainard, Heather N.; Marigold, Denise C.; Martin, Daniel P.; Martinez, Tylar; Masicampo, E.J.; Matacotta, Josh; Mathur, Maya B.; May, Michael; Mehta, Pranjal; Meixner, Johannes; Melinger, Alissa; Miller, Jeremy K.; Miller, Mallorie; Moore, Katherine; Möschl, Marcus; Motyl, Matt; Müller, Stephanie M.; Munafo, Marcus; Neijenhuijs, Koen I.; Nervi, Taylor; Nicolas, Gandalf; Nilsonne, Gustav; Nosek, Brian A.; Nuijten, Michèle B.; Olsson, Catherine; Osborne, Colleen; Ostkamp, Lutz; Pavel, Misha; Penton-Voak, Ian S.; Perna, Olivia; Pernet, Cyril; Perugini, Marco; Pipitone, R. Nathan; Pitts, Michael; Plessow, Franziska; Prenoveau, Jason M.; Rahal, Rima-Maria; Ratliff, Kate A.; Reinhard, David; Renkewitz, Frank; Ricker, Ashley A.; Rigney, Anastasia; Rivers, Andrew M.; Roebke, Mark; Rutchick, Abraham M.; Ryan, Robert S.; Sahin, Onur; Saide, Anondah; Sandstrom, Gillian M.; Santos, David; Saxe, Rebecca; Schlegelmilch, René; Schmidt, Kathleen; Scholz, Sabine; Seibel, Larissa; Selterman, Dylan Faulkner; Shaki, Samuel; Simpson, William B.; Sinclair, Colleen; Skorinko, Jeanine L.; Slowik, Agnieszka; Snyder, Joel S.; Soderberg, Courtney; Sonnleitner, Carina; Spencer, Nick; Spies, Jeffrey R.; Steegen, Sara; Stieger, Stefan; Strohminger, Nina; Sullivan, Gavin B.; Talhelm, Thomas; Tapia, Megan; te Dorsthorst, Anniek; Thomae, Manuela; Thomas, Sarah L.; Tio, Pia; Traets, Frits; Tsang, Steve; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Turchan, Paul; Valášek, Milan; van ‘t Veer, A. E.; Van Aert, Robbie; van Assen, Marcel; van Bork, Riet; van de Ven, Mathijs; van den Bergh, Donald; van der Hulst, Marije; van Dooren, Roel; van Doorn, Johnny; van Renswoude, Daan R.; van Rijn, Hedderik; Vanpaemel, Wolf; Vásquez Echeverría, Alejandro; Vazquez, Melissa; Velez, Natalia; Vermue, Marieke; Verschoor, Mark; Vianello, Michelangelo; Voracek, Martin; Vuu, Gina; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Weerdmeester, Joanneke; Welsh, Ashlee; Westgate, Erin C.; Wissink, Joeri; Wood, Michael; Woods, Andy; Wright, Emily; Wu, Sining; Zeelenberg, Marcel; and Zuni, Kellylynn
(2015)
Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science.
Science, 349 (6251): aac4716.
ISSN 0036-8075
; Kelso, Kim; Kidwell, Mallory C.; Kim, Seung Kyung; Kirkhart, Matthew; Kleinberg, Bennett; Knežević, Goran; Kolorz, Franziska Maria; Kossakowski, Jolanda J.; Krause, Robert Wilhelm; Krijnen, Job; Kuhlmann, Tim; Kunkels, Yoram K.; Kyc, Megan M.; Lai, Calvin K.; Laique, Aamir; Lakens, Daniël; Lane, Kristin A.; Lassetter, Bethany; Lazarević, Ljiljana B.; LeBel, Etienne P.; Lee, Key Jung; Lee, Minha; Lemm, Kristi; Levitan, Carmel A.; Lewis, Melissa; Lin, Lin; Lin, Stephanie; Lippold, Matthias; Loureiro, Darren; Luteijn, Ilse; Mackinnon, Sean; Mainard, Heather N.; Marigold, Denise C.; Martin, Daniel P.; Martinez, Tylar; Masicampo, E.J.; Matacotta, Josh; Mathur, Maya B.; May, Michael; Mehta, Pranjal; Meixner, Johannes; Melinger, Alissa; Miller, Jeremy K.; Miller, Mallorie; Moore, Katherine; Möschl, Marcus; Motyl, Matt; Müller, Stephanie M.; Munafo, Marcus; Neijenhuijs, Koen I.; Nervi, Taylor; Nicolas, Gandalf; Nilsonne, Gustav; Nosek, Brian A.; Nuijten, Michèle B.; Olsson, Catherine; Osborne, Colleen; Ostkamp, Lutz; Pavel, Misha; Penton-Voak, Ian S.; Perna, Olivia; Pernet, Cyril; Perugini, Marco; Pipitone, R. Nathan; Pitts, Michael; Plessow, Franziska; Prenoveau, Jason M.; Rahal, Rima-Maria; Ratliff, Kate A.; Reinhard, David; Renkewitz, Frank; Ricker, Ashley A.; Rigney, Anastasia; Rivers, Andrew M.; Roebke, Mark; Rutchick, Abraham M.; Ryan, Robert S.; Sahin, Onur; Saide, Anondah; Sandstrom, Gillian M.; Santos, David; Saxe, Rebecca; Schlegelmilch, René; Schmidt, Kathleen; Scholz, Sabine; Seibel, Larissa; Selterman, Dylan Faulkner; Shaki, Samuel; Simpson, William B.; Sinclair, Colleen; Skorinko, Jeanine L.; Slowik, Agnieszka; Snyder, Joel S.; Soderberg, Courtney; Sonnleitner, Carina; Spencer, Nick; Spies, Jeffrey R.; Steegen, Sara; Stieger, Stefan; Strohminger, Nina; Sullivan, Gavin B.; Talhelm, Thomas; Tapia, Megan; te Dorsthorst, Anniek; Thomae, Manuela; Thomas, Sarah L.; Tio, Pia; Traets, Frits; Tsang, Steve; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Turchan, Paul; Valášek, Milan; van ‘t Veer, A. E.; Van Aert, Robbie; van Assen, Marcel; van Bork, Riet; van de Ven, Mathijs; van den Bergh, Donald; van der Hulst, Marije; van Dooren, Roel; van Doorn, Johnny; van Renswoude, Daan R.; van Rijn, Hedderik; Vanpaemel, Wolf; Vásquez Echeverría, Alejandro; Vazquez, Melissa; Velez, Natalia; Vermue, Marieke; Verschoor, Mark; Vianello, Michelangelo; Voracek, Martin; Vuu, Gina; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Weerdmeester, Joanneke; Welsh, Ashlee; Westgate, Erin C.; Wissink, Joeri; Wood, Michael; Woods, Andy; Wright, Emily; Wu, Sining; Zeelenberg, Marcel; and Zuni, Kellylynn
(2015)
Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science.
Science, 349 (6251): aac4716.
ISSN 0036-8075
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
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