Evaluating the impact of contextual offers in a highly selective institution: results from a mixed-methods contribution analysis

English university admissions increasingly make use of contextual offers, where applicants with certain socio-demographic characteristics can be offered marginally lower entry conditions. This paper presents novel insights on the impact of contextual offer policy on one institutions' patterns of enrolment in 2022/23 via a mixed methods contribution analysis. We present evidence that the policy contributed to widening access for targeted students despite the institutions' small and highly selective intake. This effect appears to be driven by increasing applicants' likelihood of accepting an offer and allowing a small number of students to enrol despite narrowly missing standard offer criteria. While contextual offer policies thus appear to be an effective tool for improving targeted students' enrolment at an institution, further research is needed to understand the impact of contextual offers on student outcomes and experiences.