The dog that didn’t bark: on the effect of the Great Recession on the surge of secessionism

This paper explores the relationship between the economic turmoil generated by the Great Recession and the increase of secessionism. Some authors have stressed that the Great Recession triggered profound changes in territorial preferences and, in the context of a conflict between the centre and the periphery, fuelled secessionism as a radical shift of the institutional setup. Nevertheless, other researchers have remarked that a deep recession may enhance the status quo bias and decrease the likelihood of radical changes. Our paper aims at contributing to this debate by analysing the case of Catalonia. We use an aggregate and an individual level empirical design to explore the relationship between the deterioration of the economic situation and the increase of preferences for secession among the Catalan population. The findings from the analysis of our empirical models do not support the hypothesis that the effects of the Great Recession had any significant impact on political preferences in Catalonia.