Had austerity not happened, Leave support could have been up to 10 lower

A series of cuts since the Coalition government curtailed the welfare state, activating this way a range of existing economic grievances. As a result, in districts that received the average austerity shock UKIP vote shares were up, compared to districts with little exposure to austerity. Thiemo Fetzer writes that the tight link between UKIP vote shares and an area's support for Leave implies that, had austerity not happened, the referendum could have been in favour of Remain.