Projected demand for supported housing in Great Britain 2015 to 2030

This paper presents projections prepared for the Department of Communities and Local Government and the Department of Health of demand for supported housing for older people and younger adults in Great Britain to 2030 and associated future expenditure. We project that, to keep pace with demographic pressures, the number of supported housing units for older people in Great Britain will need to rise from 460,000 in 2015 to around 625,000 in 2030, an increase of 35%, and for younger adults from 190,000 in 2015 to around 220,000 in 2030, an increase of 16%. To meet this increase in demand, overall expenditure on supported housing across all user groups would need to rise from £4.13 billion in 2015 to £5.24 billion in 2030 in constant 2015 prices, an increase of 27%. These projections are inevitably sensitive to assumptions about future rates of disability, homelessness and other conditions requiring supported housing and to assumptions about the future weekly costs of a supported housing unit. They should not be regarded as forecasts but as projections on the basis of specific assumptions about trends in such variables as future disability rates.