Union relative wage effects in the United States and the United Kingdom

This paper presents evidence of both countercyclical and secular decline in the union membership wage premium in the United States and the United Kingdom over the last couple of decades. The premium has fallen for most groups of workers, the main exception being public sector workers in the United States. By the beginning of the 21st century, the premium remained substantial in the United States, but there was no premium for many workers in the United Kingdom. Industry, state, and occupation-level analyses for the United States identify upward as well as downward movement in the premium characterized by regression to the mean.