National identity and party affiliation are set to play a key role in the Scottish referendum, whose result is more uncertain than opinion polls suggest

‘DevoMax’ will not be an option on the ballot paper in the Scottish Independence Referendum next year even though it is more popular among the electorate than independence. Arno van der Zwet and Craig McAngus explore how Scottish attitudes to the two options vary according to national and party identity. They find that perceptions of national identity polarises assessments of Scotland’s performance under independence more so than it does for DevoMax. Also, people’s assessments of Scotland’s future do not always match their actual constitutional preferences, suggesting that the referendum result is more uncertain than opinion polls may suggest.