New election prediction: Macron will win, but the race will be closer than opinion polls suggest

Opinion polls suggest Emmanuel Macron will win the second round of the French presidential election, but given the surprise results in the UK’s Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election, how certain can we be of the result? Outlining findings from a new prediction model, Vuk Vukovic and Ilona Lahdelma discuss the precision of French pollsters in calling the first round, and why their survey predicts a narrower race than most opinion polls, with Macron still emerging on top.