Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling.

The aftermath of the last presidential election saw election forecasting models called into question when only 7 out of 12 national models predicted that Obama would remain in the White House. Matthew C. MacWilliams proposes a new method of election prediction – using Facebook data in combination with electoral fundamentals. Applying this method to 16 of the 2014 Senate’s most close-run elections, the new model’s predictions were more accurate than five out of six other major forecasting models.