Does tougher sentencing deter crime? Evidence from the London 2011 riots suggests it does

After the 2011 London riots, large numbers of rioters were convicted and given much harsher sentences than for people convicted of the same kinds of crimes before the riots occurred. Did the tougher sentencing have a deterrent effect on crime? Laura Jaitman and Stephen Machin analyse the potential effect on crime of the severe sanctions that were enacted. Their results show a significant drop in crime. However, they also find that non-riot crimes actually went in the opposite direction increasing slightly, suggesting a rational response from criminals who look to have substituted away from the types of crimes that received tougher sentences to those that did not.