PM-Pendulum Model: Conservatives Edge Labour in Votes and Seats

Last week, a group of academics gathered at LSE to discuss a variety of forecasting models. In this post, Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth, both professors of political science at Stony Brook University in New York, discuss their PM-and-Pendulum model. Their model favours the Conservatives in terms of parliamentary seats, though predicts that Cameron will not win a majority. Further, they suggest that the SNP is likely to win 41 of 59 Scottish seats.