Predicting the polls – April

Blumenau, J., Hanretty, C., Lauderdale, B. & Vivyan, N. (2015). Predicting the polls – April.
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Each month, the team from electionforecast.co.uk compare new constituency polls as they are released to their estimates of what polls would show in those constituencies. This allows for an assessment of the accuracy of their modeling approach. More information about the overall model can be found here. The results presented in this post use all constituency polls released by Lord Ashcroft in April so far.

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