Polling divergence – phone versus online and established versus new

It has been suggested in recent weeks that one source of variation in the polls of vote intention for the general election is the difference between traditional phone polls, and those polls that are conducted online. In this post, Matt Singh recasts the debate by focussing on the difference between newer and more established pollsters. He finds that polls from more established pollsters have tended to favour the Conservatives over recent months, while measuring somewhat lower shares for UKIP.