Predicting the Brexit vote: getting the geography right (more or less)

In April 2016 in two contributions to this blog Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley predicted the likely geography of support for Brexit in the EU referendum. In this concluding piece they compare their predictions to the result. The general pattern of their predictions turned out to be very accurate, but regional differences were more pronounced than anticipated, with variations in both late electoral registrations and turnout introducing unexpected impacts on the geography of the outcome.