Replication of government research uncovers shaky evidence on relationship between school and degree performance.

Interested in the statistical analysis used to justify the Department of Education’s reforms, Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones, David Manley, Tony Hoare and Richard Harris requested the data related to school performance and degree results via a Freedom of Information request. One year later the dataset was finally made available and they were able to identify some substantial flaws in the government research including sample bias, missing data and poor research design. Rather than confirming that AS level results ‘add a negligible degree of accuracy to university performance prediction’, the team found that by scrapping AS-levels for examination criteria, 1-in-5 students capable of getting a good degree at the institution of their choice might not be given that chance.