The geography of the Brexit vote – what difference will turnout make?

In their recent analysis, Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley used a large body of YouGov polling data to explore which social groups are most likely to vote Leave in the upcoming EU Referendum and where they live, producing a clear geography of support for Brexit. Here, they explore how differential turnout rates across those groups could alter the pattern of support for the Leave campaign, which suggests where the Remain campaign might most effectively target its campaigning resources.