Can we really not predict who will vote for Brexit, and where?

In a recent Guardian article, Simon Jenkins suggested that voter decisions regarding the EU referendum will be made on the basis of gut instinct alone, and that personal characteristics and previous party support provide no guide. Using a new modelling strategy applied to a large body of YouGov opinion poll data, Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley address Jenkins’ claim, and find it wanting. The young and the well-qualified appear much more inclined to Remain than the elderly, and voting intentions to Leave seem to match, not surprisingly, support for UKIP.