History suggests the UK will vote to stay in the EU… but only just

Will the UK Brexit or Bremain? Presenting an analysis of all 49 of the referendums on EU-related issues that have taken place since 1972, Matt Qvotrup states that the three main factors likely to influence the final vote’s result are the UK’s levels of inflation and economic growth (which both show a positive correlation with a vote for the status quo), and the number of years spent in office by the government (which has a negative correlation with support for the status quo). Using these factors, he calculates that Britain will vote to stay in the EU, but only by the narrowest of margins.