With the centre-right ahead, is next year’s French presidential battle already over?

France will hold presidential elections in 2017, which have taken on renewed significance in the aftermath of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. Jocelyn Evans and Gilles Ivaldi present a comprehensive look at the state of play ahead of the elections. They write that with the Socialist Party in disarray, the presidential election is the centre-right’s to lose, with Alain Juppé or Nicolas Sarkozy likely to win the nomination. Meanwhile Marine Le Pen is well placed to secure a record share of the vote in the first round of the election, but will be hard pressed to beat the centre-right candidate in the second round.