Unless the Yes campaign can shift tactics, Italy’s constitutional referendum is heading for a No vote

Italy’s constitutional referendum, scheduled for 4 December, has been billed as a vote of confidence in the country’s Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi. James Dennison and Jonas Bergan Draege illustrate, however, the more voters are invited to link the proposed reforms to Renzi, the less likely they are to support them. They suggest that with support for the reforms falling over recent months, the best strategy for a Yes vote may be to capitalise on distrust in political parties by reframing the referendum as a way to reduce the number of politicians in parliament.