New survey evidence: Renzi’s support is damaging the chances of a Yes vote in Italy’s referendum

When the Italian constitutional referendum was called, Italy’s Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, linked the result to the fate of his government, suggesting that he would resign in the case of a No vote. Based on new survey evidence, Céline Colombo, Andrea De Angelis and Davide Morisi write that this strategy appears to have been counterproductive. They illustrate that voter support for the reform declines when it is explicitly linked to the government, but that if the Yes campaign focuses solely on the content of the reform, they may find consensus among a majority of voters on some of the key elements of the proposal.