Our biographical model predicts Clinton would defeat Trump by a landslide, but would be tied with Cruz

As the 2016 election season rolls on, it is looking increasingly likely that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will square off against New York billionaire Donald Trump in the general election. But what determines how voters decide which candidate to support? Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe have developed a bio-index model that predicts presidential election outcomes based on candidates’ biographies by capturing information such as a candidate’s family history, education, or political experience. The model predicts that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump by a landslide, gaining nearly 60 percent of the vote.