Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Hanretty, Chris; Lauderdale, Ben; and Vivyan, Nick (2016) Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies, 41. pp. 239-243. ISSN 0261-3794
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We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.
Item Type Article
Keywords national polling,constituency polling,uniform swing,generalized normal swing
Departments Methodology
DOI 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
Date Deposited 03 Feb 2016 09:47
URI https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/65213

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