The class of '81: the effects of early-career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences

We examine whether unemployment early in an individual's career influences her later employment prospects. We use six years of the LFS to create pseudo-cohorts and exploit cross-cohort variation in unemployment at school-leaving age to identify this. We find heterogeneous responses: for the unskilled, there is evidence of an enduring adverse effect; for the more skilled, there is a small beneficial effect.