The class of '81: the effects of early-career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences

Burgess, S., Propper, C., Rees, H. & Shearer, A. (1999). The class of '81: the effects of early-career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences. (CASEpaper 32). Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion.
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We examine whether unemployment early in an individual's career influences her later employment prospects. We use six years of the LFS to create pseudo-cohorts and exploit cross-cohort variation in unemployment at school-leaving age to identify this. We find heterogeneous responses: for the unskilled, there is evidence of an enduring adverse effect; for the more skilled, there is a small beneficial effect.

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