HIV/AIDS and cross-national convergence in life expectancy

This article analyzes the impact of HIV/AIDS on the cross-national convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing three scenarios. One is based on historical and future best guess estimated values given the existence of the epidemic. The second scenario assumes that the effect of the epidemic is much worse than expected. The final scenario is based on hypothetical values derived from estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is taken out. For life expectancy, convergence becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. These results are mainly due to the epidemic since all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear in the ‘No AIDS-scenario’. Given the existence of the epidemic, however, the degree of inequality in life expectancy is only expected to be achieved again no earlier than 2015. If the epidemic turns out much worse than expected, there could be continuing divergence to 2050. No divergence is to be expected in infant and child survival rates in any of the scenarios.