Extremists who win primaries are 37 percent less likely to win the general election compared to more moderate candidates

Recent years have seen growing concern about polarization in Congress, with many suggesting that voters have been nominating more extreme candidates in primary elections. In new research, Andrew B. Hall looks at what happens when more ideologically extreme candidates are nominated, and finds that compared to more moderate candidates, they are 37 percent less likely to win the general election. He argues that this the current trend towards nominating more extreme candidates may not be down to voters’ preferences, but to the changing supply of candidates, which has been influenced by the higher costs and fewer benefits of running.