Mariano Rajoy may have forced Artur Mas’ hand over a Catalan independence consultation, but the issue remains far from settled

On 14 October, Catalan President Artur Mas stated that the planned vote on Catalonia’s independence, scheduled for 9 November, would no longer be held. Instead, he has proposed a poll on the same day on the basis of regional laws not ruled out by the Constitutional Tribunal. Sebastian Balfour writes that the new poll would have significantly less impact than the original proposal and may lead to the undermining of the unity of the Catalan pro-independence parties. Madrid’s blocking of the referendum may also give rise to more radical protests over Catalonia’s future and the poll may be followed by early elections from which the strongly pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) will benefit.