For presidential candidates in Latin America, close ties to an outgoing president can increase the importance of the economy to voters

It is an old trope that the economy matters to voters in presidential elections. But how do voters think about the economy in elections where the incumbent president does not stand? Using evidence from Latin American elections, Ignazio De Ferrari finds that the identity of presidential candidates matters in how people think about the economy when they vote. He argues that candidates that are seen as successors to an outgoing president are more likely to be punished or rewarded by voters depending on their predecessor’s economic performance.