There are new rules for election forecasting in the 21st century

Predicting election results is just as much an art as it a science, writes David Wasserman. He argues that in recent decades, new trends in many of the subjective factors of elections have emerged and forecasters need to take them into account. These include the increased importance of migration patterns, the tendency for voters to vote for the party over the person, and shifts in campaign financing away from individual candidates and towards large party committees.