People’s subjective expectations about their own future health can teach us a great deal about their attitudes towards smoking

Economic policymaking often depends on the ability to model how people evaluate the future consequences of the decisions that they make. Using data from a sample of nearly 13,000, Yang Wang investigates this by evaluating how people’s decisions to smoke are affected by expectations of their own longevity. She finds that subjectively, individuals attach less weight to their health conditions and smoking choices and more weight to factors like age, race, and their parents’ longevity. She also finds that adult smokers care more about their own health and tend to be more forward-looking than has been otherwise believed.