The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market
Dixon, M. J. & Pope, P.
(2004).
The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market.
International Journal of Forecasting,
20(4), 697-711.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.12.007
In this paper, we evaluate the economic significance of statistical forecasts of UK Association Football match outcomes in relation to betting market prices. We present a detailed comparison of odds set by different bookmakers in relation to forecast model predictions, and analyse the potential for arbitrage across firms. We also examine extreme odds biases. A detailed re-examination of match result odds and a new examination of correct score odds for the period 1993 to 1996 suggest that the market is inefficient.
| Item Type | Article |
|---|---|
| Copyright holders | © 2004 Elsevier B.V. |
| Departments | LSE > Academic Departments > Accounting |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.12.007 |
| Date Deposited | 30 Oct 2013 |
| URI | https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/53901 |
Explore Further
- http://www.lse.ac.uk/accounting/people/peter-pope/home.aspx (Author)
- https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/13844310712 (Scopus publication)
- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01692... (Official URL)