Why Keynes underestimated consumption and overestimated leisure for the long run

Becker, G. & Rayo, L. (2008). Why Keynes underestimated consumption and overestimated leisure for the long run. In Revisiting Keynes: Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren (pp. 179-185). MIT Press.
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In 1931 distinguished economist John Maynard Keynes published a short essay, Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, in his collection Essays in Persuasion. In the essay, he expressed optimism for the economic future despite the doldrums of the post-World War I years and the onset of the Great Depression. Keynes imagined that by 2030 the standard of living would be dramatically higher; people, liberated from want (and without the desire to consume for the sake of consumption), would work no more than fifteen hours a week, devoting the rest of their time to leisure and culture. In Revisiting Keynes, leading contemporary economists consider what Keynes got right in his essay—the rise in the standard of living, for example—and what he got wrong—such as a shortened work week and consumer satiation. In so doing, they raise challenging questions about the world economy and contemporary lifestyles in the twenty-first century...

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