Fertility responses to violent conflict: evidence from the Second Palestinian Intifada

The Occupied Palestinian Territory has one of the highest rates of natural increase in the world. The persistence of high fertility in a context of prolonged conflict and military occupation has generated considerable research interest. However, previous work has been fairly descriptive. In this paper, we examine the impact of conflict on the fertility behaviour of Palestinian women during the second Intifada (2000-2005). Compared to previous research, our study has a number of strengths. For the first time, conflict intensity is measured using detailed information on monthly fatalities. Also, fertility responses are investigated by referring to individual conceptions on a monthly basis. A Cox model is used to assess the relationship between conflict intensity and conception hazards. Implications of our findings will be discussed.