Dangers and demon(izer)s of democratization in Egypt: through an Indonesian glass, darkly

This chapter illuminates the ongoing transition from authoritarian rule since 2011 and prospects for democratization in Egypt in the years ahead through a comparison with Indonesia since 1998. The chapter identifies crucial commonalities between Egypt and Indonesia, including the political transformations leading up through the fall of Suharto in 1998 and Mubarak in 2011, suggesting that the situation in Egypt as of late 2012 mirrors the early post-Suharto interlude of 1998-1999. Political trends in Indonesia since that time, it is argued, suggest that the current political strength of Islamist forces in Egypt may be both more exaggerated and more ephemeral than is commonly understood. But both the similarities and the differeneces between the two countries alse suggest the likely staying power of conservative forces associated with the ancien regime - the military establishment, the entrenched business oligarchy, and local political bosses - impeding the continuing struggle for democratization in Egypt.