The Coalition Government has only a 1 in 3 chance of lasting its term. Statistical modelling predicts its fall in October 2014

Hanretty, C. (2012). The Coalition Government has only a 1 in 3 chance of lasting its term. Statistical modelling predicts its fall in October 2014.
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There has been much recent talk about the possibility of the Coalition government falling before the parliamentary term is up. Chris Hanretty uses a quantitative statistical model to suggest that this is indeed probable, and that the best prediction indicates the government will fall in October 2014.

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