The impact of benefit and tax uprating on incomes and poverty

Each year, the Government decides how much to raise benefits and tax allowances. The basis for these upratings is rarely debated, yet has major long-term consequences for the relative living standards of different groups and for public finances. This report considers the implications of present uprating policies, which mean that some parts of the tax and benefit system are uprated by earnings growth, other parts by prices and some not at all. Continuing with these uprating policies for 20 years, other things staying the same, would result in a near doubling of the child poverty rate alongside a substantial gain to the public finances. Some of this budgetary gain may be needed to meet other demands – of an ageing population for example – but the cost falls disproportionately onto poorer groups and could be raised more fairly. Using results from three types of micro-simulation model, this study aims to stimulate debate on an often hidden area of policy-making.