Dissecting the effect of credit supply on trade: evidence from matched credit-export data

We estimate the elasticity of exports to credit using matched customs and firm-level bank credit data from Peru. To account for non-credit determinants of exports, we compare changes in exports of the same product and to the same destination by firms borrowing from banks differentially affected by capital flow reversals during the 2008 financial crisis. A 10% decline in credit reduces by 2.3% the intensive margin of exports, by 3.6% the number of firms that continue supplying a product-destination, but has no effect on the entry margin. Overall, credit shortages explain 15% of the Peruvian exports decline during the crisis.