Labour and tories neck and neck? Hix-Vivyan prediction up to 19 April

We have updated our election prediction model, based on national voting intention results from all polls with fieldwork up to and including 19 April – hence, taking into account the full set of polls after the first TV leaders’ debate. Here is a figure showing the time trends in our “pooling the polls” analysis. The dots in the figure show the results from the various polls and the shaded areas around the lines are the 95 per cent confidence intervals around the mean standings of the parties.