Iraq's future: the aftermath of regime change

It is hard to over-estimate what is at stake in Iraq today. The removal of Saddam Hussein has proved to be the beginning not the culmination of a long and very uncertain process of state building. This Adelphi Paper examines the process of state building now underway in Iraq from a military, political and sociological perspective. Possible futures for Iraq are charted firstly by studying the evolution of the criminal and politically motivated violence that has come to dominate the everyday lives of ordinary Iraqis. It then details the strengths and weaknesses of the political structures built after regime change, from the formation of the Iraqi Governing Council in 2003 to the elections of January 2005. Finally it traces the dynamics driving political mobilisation in post Saddam Iraq. It concludes by analysing the ramifications of regime change for US policy and the wider Middle East.