Does adaptation to climate change provide food security? A micro-perspective from Ethiopia

We examine the driving forces behind farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change, and the impact of adaptation on farmers’ food production. We investigate whether there are differences in the food production functions of farm households that adapted and those that did not adapt. We estimate a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We compare the expected food production under the actual and counterfactual cases that the farm household adapted or not to climate change. We find that the group of farm households that adapted has systematically different characteristics than the group of farm households that did not adapt. The relationship between production and average temperature is inverted U-shaped for farm households that adapted, while it is U-shaped for farm households that did not adapt, and vice versa in the case of precipitation. We find that adaptation increases food production, however, the impact of adaptation on food production is smaller for the farm households that actually did adapt than for the farm households that did not adapt in the counterfactual case that they adapted.