Spikes and spill-overs: the impact of the national minimum wage on the wage distribution in a low-wage sector

The UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) has had a minimal impact on UK wage inequality because it has been set at a modest level and because aggregate evidence suggests very small spill-over effects. But the small spill-over effects might be because of the small numbers of workers affected and widespread anticipation of the introduction of the NMW might make the impact effect appear very small. This paper investigates these issues using data collected from care homes where the NMW affected 40% of workers. But we still find no evidence of large spill-over effects and very small amounts of anticipation of the NMW.