Are deterministic descriptions and indeterministic descriptions observationally equivalent?
The central question of this paper is: are deterministic and indeterministic descriptions observationally equivalent in the sense that they give the same predictions? I tackle this question for measure-theoretic deterministic systems and stochastic processes, both of which are ubiquitous in science. I first show that for many measure-theoretic deterministic systems there is a stochastic process which is observationally equivalent to the deterministic system. Conversely, I show that for all stochastic processes there is a measure-theoretic deterministic system which is observationally equivalent to the stochastic process. Still, one might guess that the measure-theoretic deterministic systems which are observationally equivalent to stochastic processes used in science do not include any deterministic systems used in science. I argue that this is not so because deterministic systems used in science even give rise to Bernoulli processes. Despite this, one might guess that measure-theoretic deterministic systems used in science cannot give the same predictions at every observation level as stochastic processes used in science. By proving results in ergodic theory, I show that also this guess is misguided: there are several deterministic systems used in science which give the same predictions at every observation level as Markov processes. All these results show that measure-theoretic deterministic systems and stochastic processes are observationally equivalent more often than one might perhaps expect. Furthermore, I criticize the claims of some previous philosophy papers on observational equivalence.
| Item Type | Article |
|---|---|
| Copyright holders | © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. |
| Keywords | indeterminism, determinism, chaos, observational equivalence, prediction, stochastic processes, ergodic theory |
| Departments | Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.shpsb.2009.06.004 |
| Date Deposited | 04 Jan 2011 13:37 |
| URI | https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/31094 |