Projections of demand for residential care for older people in England: report for BUPA

This paper, commissioned by BUPA, reports on the impact that changes in assumptions about household composition, housing tenure and the balance of domiciliary to institutional care could have on the future numbers of older people in care homes. It uses the PSSRU model of demand for long-term care. The impact of the new scenarios developed for this project is compared to that of scenarios investigated in previous research about variant population projections, marital status and rises in the real costs of care. The results show the impact of the scenarios in terms of the distribution between public and privately funded residents in care homes, projected numbers of recipients of local authority (LA) funded home care, total expenditure on long-term care (LTC) and workforce requirements for care homes.