Strategic risk, civil war and intervention

This paper presents a theory of con°ict in which violence occurs as a result of strategic risk. Actors face a di±cult balancing act between the fear of being attacked and the opportunity cost of breaking peace that selects the risk dominant equilibrium. We link the propensity of con°ict to current and future economic conditions and dis- cuss the e®ects of growth, inequality and military technology on the ability of groups to escape the Security Dilemma.