The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances

Blanchard, O. & Quah, D. (1989). The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. American Economic Review, 79(4), 655-673.
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We interpret fluctuations in GNP and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not. We interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances. Demand disturbances have a hump-shaped mirror-image effect on output and unemployment. The effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time, peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years.

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