The rise and decline of Iran's Forward Defense Strategy

Abstract

The complexity of Iran’s networks with military non-state actors have drawn significant policy attention. These networks have long constituted the backbone of Iran’s ‘Forward Defense Strategy’ designed to project power and deter threats beyond its borders. However, this strategy suffered a major blow in the wake of the Gaza War and the following collapse of the Assad regime of Syria. Despite the significance of the Islamic Republic’s rhetoric, the present article examines the foundations of this strategy through the lens of Iran’s distinctive geography and historical experience, emphasizing that its forward defencedefencedefence strategy is shaped by key geopolitical factors in conjunction with its revolutionary ideology. The paper also delves into the essential concept of ‘strategic loneliness’, presenting it as an enduring characteristic of Iran’s geopolitics, while emphasizing the country’s geographical challenges and its persistent historical sense of insecurity. The analysis reveals the significant ramifications of Iran’s weakened Gray Zone military strategy on the trajectory of its non-state foreign policy initiatives. The article eventually contends that although its forward defencedefencedefence strategy has preserved Iran’s national security, it ultimately ensnared the country in a lasting geopolitical predicament and exacerbated the wider crises in the Middle East.