Mapping educational inequalities in Wales: spatial and socio‐economic determinants of pupils' attainment

Abstract

Understanding spatial variations in educational outcomes is important for addressing educational inequalities. This study examines how socio‐economic factors and household characteristics influence age 16 standardised attainment across Wales using linked administrative and census data. In terms of methodology, we employed logistic regression modelling at the individual level, while at the Lower Layer Super Output Area level, we used both Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression. At the Individual level, results reveal strong associations between attainment and household characteristics, with household education level having positive effects, while socio‐economic disadvantage is negatively associated with attainment. The spatial analysis highlights significant variations in how these factors impact attainment across Wales. Household education level shows consistently positive effects throughout the country, while eligibility for free school meals and special educational needs demonstrate varying negative associations across small geographies. Overall, this study provides novel insights into the complex relationship between place, socio‐economic status, and educational outcomes in Wales. These findings suggest that one‐size‐fits‐all educational policies may be insufficient and emphasise the need for geographically targeted interventions.