A discount rate for economic evaluations for Health Technology Assessment in Greece

Abstract

Objectives Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in healthcare, with Economic Evaluation (EE) constituting an integral part of this process. A key methodological parameter in EEs is the discount rate, which allows for consistent valuation of future costs and benefits. In this study, we use Greece as a case study to provide an empirically grounded estimation of a country-specific social discount rate (SDR), combining international best practices with national economic conditions, projections and societal preferences. Methods For the analysis, we employ the Social Rate of Time Preference framework via an extended version of the Ramsey formula. The model parameters, i.e. pure rate of time preference, elasticity of marginal utility of consumption, expected per capita consumption growth, and the variance of consumption growth, were estimated based on national datasets on mortality, taxation, GDP growth, and demographic trends. The base-case estimate of the SDR was tested for robustness through a series of one-way sensitivity analyses (OWSA). Results The base-case estimate for the SDR in Greece was estimated at 3.42%. The OWSA revealed that the SDR was mostly influenced by variations in expected per capita consumption growth and pure rate of time preference. Conclusion This study provides an empirically grounded estimate of a country-specific social discount rate for Greece. The estimated value, lies well within interanationally used values in EEs. Our analysis underlines the importance of macroeconomic evidence and trends and highlights the need of future/periodic reassessments of the SDR to maintain alignment with economic and societal changes.