U.S. tariffs and Greek exports

Abstract

We examine the effects of the 2018-2019 U.S. tariffs on Greek goods exports using industry- and firm-level data within a difference-in-differences framework. The results reveal considerable heterogeneity: eight out of seventeen products experienced declines in exports, six saw increases, and the rest showed no significant change. Firm-level analysis confirms part of this heterogeneity. While many export-oriented firms were resilient, some in specific industries experienced either export and sales declines or gains. A notable case is the aluminum sector, where firms experienced substantial increases in exports, pointing to potential sector-specific advantages. We also find modest evidence of export market substitution as a mitigating strategy. Our findings highlight the nuanced, sector-dependent effects of trade policy shifts. Policymakers should design support for affected firms through targeted trade promotion, market diversification incentives, and streamlined export procedures to enhance resilience against trade shocks.