Arms, technology and influence: industrial mercantilism and the rise of global China in the post-Cold War period

Abstract

Over the last three decades, China has transitioned from a major importer to a major exporter of conventional weapons. Chinese defence firms have meanwhile become global actors pursuing increasingly complex defence offset programmes, international research partnerships, and joint ventures. Drawing on a theorybuilding process tracing research design, this thesis explains the internationalisation of China’s defence sector by reconceptualising the militaryindustrial complex (MIC). Considering China’s mercantilist political economy in which the party-state uses economic means to maximise national power, this thesis describes this system of strategies, policies, institutions and actors as military-industrial mercantilism (MIM). In contrast to the MIC, MIM is a deliberately crafted and not an unwarranted consequence of defence modernisation that features a distinct international dimension linked to China’s need to catch-up with advanced defence-industrial powers such as the United States and Russia. MIM’s core features include (1) the development of an arms exports business in support of foreign policy objectives and (2) the acquisition of technology and expertise to achieve self-reliance in weapons production. However, despite intervention by senior leaders to exert control over the defence establishment in China’s hierarchical political-economy, MIM is also characterised by (3) a legacy of central planning, manifesting in bureaucratic fragmentation and resistance to disruptive reforms. This thesis thus offers two contributions. First, drawing on primary sources collected by the author, including first-hand observations at defence exhibitions, it reconceptualises the MIC with reference to China’s case-specific attributes. Second, it highlights resonant themes between China’s emergence as a major arms exporter and the universe of cases of military-industrial complexes in autocratic political systems amidst a period of rapid global rearmament and great power competition. This has implications for our understanding of China as a security actor and Chinese arms exports as well as the link between defence industrialisation and foreign policy.